39-year old quarterback Tom Brady has had one of the most successful careers in NFL history, winning five Super Bowls. However, fans are advised to stay away from him because his age makes him more susceptible to injuries and slower than other younger players.
The “who is the best qb in the nfl” is a question that has been asked many times. History says stay away from 39-year-old quarterbacks.
Trade speculations for Aaron Rodgers is a quarterback in the NFL.? Again? Isn’t this something we just went through?
Only Rodgers, the 38-year-old four-time MVP, knows what his future holds, presuming he even knows what his intentions are for the 2022 NFL season, his age-39 season, at this early stage of the offseason. Even that, based on his latest trolling visit on The Pat McAfee Show, may not be a safe bet for the Green Bay Packers great.
During the 2021 offseason, Rodgers went through a similar ordeal. Is he going to retire? Is all he wants is to be traded to another team? Will he be reporting to camp? Is he taking too much inspiration from fellow Packers star Brett Favre is a quarterback for the Green Bay Packers.’s disastrous late-career decision-making?
Perhaps, a year later, he’d learnt from his mistakes?
Per ESPN‘s Dianna Russini, Rodgers plans to inform the only organization he’s ever known of his plans “soon,” and multiple franchises already have offers on the table:
According to league sources, Aaron Rodgers is a quarterback in the NFL. will notify the Packers of his choice shortly. I’m informed that numerous clubs have made offers, but nothing can happen unless the Green Bay Packers agree to a deal.
— Dianna Russini (@diannaESPN) February 24, 2022
Perhaps the Denver Broncos, who already seem to be doing all they can to facilitate a Rodgers trade, are one of those clubs. Perhaps the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are prepared to move on from Tom Brady to another potential Hall of Fame Quarterback after devoting far too much mental energy to the concept of starting Blaine Gabbert.
Carson Wentz’s future with the Indianapolis Colts might be in jeopardy. The New York Giants may be on the lookout for a player who can put an end to the dreadful Daniel Jones era. Instead of trading Christian McCaffrey and embarking on a full-fledged rebuild, the Carolina Panthers might swing for the fences and acquire an upcoming superstar.
The list might go on forever.
However, if Rodgers decides to sell himself rather than hang up his cleats or commit to another season of chilly home games at Lambeau Field, every possible bidder should keep in mind one essential aspect of the scenario that is both apparent and sometimes neglected. Rodgers will be 39 in December, and Quarterbacks don’t often age gracefully, despite Brady’s long-standing and atypical rejection of Father Time.
Green Bay Packers Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is a quarterback in the NFL. gestures as he departs the field after the team’s NFC Divisional Playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Getty Images/Patrick McDermott
This isn’t to claim Rodgers’ performance would suddenly deteriorate after winning the NFL’s most coveted individual award in consecutive seasons. Not at all. In fact, the 10-time Pro Bowler ranked fourth among the top 32 Quarterbacks for the 2022 season in our rankings.
However, history hasn’t been kind to veterans with this much experience, and the bottom may fall out at any moment. It’s this unpredictability that should make you cautious.
Rodgers will very certainly continue to perform at a high level in 2022, regardless of which jersey he wears. However, the potential that he doesn’t, that he falls from (football-related) grace much more quickly than everyone thinks, should be kept in the back of businesses’ minds as they consider offers. Even if the unmet expectations are just for a single season, acquiring a player of this quality necessitates a large transfer of asset equity, which may be catastrophic.
Rodgers is entering his age-39 season after winning the MVP award for the second year in a row. And, although his injury record is considerably more tolerable than Peyton Manning is a quarterback who has won many Super Bowls’s at this point in their careers, keep in mind that the former Indianapolis Colt and Denver Bronco retired at the age of 39.
He’s not the only one.
Examine the top 10 Quarterbacks’ age-38 seasons (and ties) in NFL history, as well as how they did in the following season, using Pro Football Reference’s approximate value (AV) metric:
| Quarterback | Age-38 AV | Age-39 AV | Change |
| Tom Brady | 18 | 13 | -5 |
| Drew Brees is the quarterback for the New Orleans Saints. | 17 | 16 | -1 |
| Peyton Manning is a quarterback who has won many Super Bowls | 16 | 2 | -14 |
| Aaron Rodgers is a quarterback in the NFL. | 15 | TBD | TBD |
| Elway, John | 14 | Retired | N/A |
| Brett Favre is a quarterback for the Green Bay Packers. | 14 | 12 | -2 |
| Rivers, Philip | 13 | 13 | 0 |
| Eli Manning is a quarterback for the New York Giants | 12 | 3 | -9 |
| Warner, Kurt | 11 | Retired | N/A |
| Tarkenton, Fran | 11 | Retired | N/A |
| Simms, Phil | 11 | Retired | N/A |
| Warren Moon is a well-known figure in the | 11 | 13 | +2 |
| Earl Morrall is a character in the film Earl Morrall | 11 | 2 | -9 |
Warren Moon is a well-known figure in the is the lone outlier, actually improving when he hit the final year of his 30s. Far more frequently, declines come into play, and the magnitude of the decline is bigger than during the previous year-to-year change:
| Age | QUALIFIED QUARTERBACKS QUALIFIED QUARTERBACKS | AV on the average | AV on the average of QBs Who Play Until Age-39 |
| 37 | 79 | 5.94 | 7.76 |
| 38 | 57 | 5.96 | 6.97 |
| 39 | 34 | 4.32 | 4.32 |
The difference between the age-37 and age-38 seasons is minor, albeit the limited sample size should be taken into account. When we filter to just look at signal-callers who played all three relevant seasons (the final column), we see a far larger drop at the precise point where Rodgers is today.
This isn’t to argue that clubs should completely avoid dealing for him. He may win his third straight MVP award in a Packers jersey — or for any other team willing to put up with the hassles that come with it.
Rodgers, on the other hand, should proceed with care since he is approaching perilous age-related area. As it comes to males in the middle, history hasn’t been kind to them when they’re approaching their forties.
The magical number is 39, and it’s not in a positive manner.
Unless otherwise stated, all stats are courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
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